Mike’s Bracket Picks (sure to go wrong)

Ladies and Gents, my 2008 NCAA Picks (Click to Enlarge):

I’ve done a fair amount of research, mixed with a fair amount of guesswork to try to create a fairly reliable bracket. 

Here’s my reasoning for some of my picks:

If Kansas meets Georgetown, they don’t have any way to counter Roy Hibbert.  If you go with a collapsible zone, the Hoyas will destroy you on the outside. 

If Butler wold have beaten Drake back in Bracket Buster Week, the two teams easily could have swapped seeds.  Instead, the Bulldogs head to Birmingham to take on a ligit South Alabama team with something to prove after their poor showing in the Sun Belt Tournament. 

After that the Jags face Tennessee, who has a striking resemblance to the team in ‘06 that entered as the #2 seed.  That year, they lost in the second round to a solid mid-major in Wichita State.  History will repeat itself.

When picking upsets, it’s important to find a match-up of two inconsistent teams.  Saint Joe’s defines inconsistency.  The Red Hawks beat Xavier twice in the final week of the season, however they have some puzzling losses on their schedule as well: Holy Cross, Duquense, Charlotte and Saint Louis.  They seem to play to the level of their opponent, and if they can get hot from beyond the arc, they’ll pull off the upset.

There were two Kentucky teams this season.  The first, the one at the beginning, would have been lucky to qualify for the new CBI.  The second, the one at the end, could have gotten a 6 seed.  With the average of the two, the Wildcats enter the tournament as an 11, and get to face a Marquette team (yet again) in the first round.  The Wildcats are a dangerous team for opponents without dominant big men, and I see them knocking off the Golden Eagles.  Round two however, with Stanford’s Lopez twins, will be a whole other story.

No matter what John Calipari wants you to believe, Memphis’ poor free throw shooting (dead last in the nation) is reason for pause.  Sure they shot well during their blowout Conference USA Tournament wins, but in the clutch, this weakness will get exposed.  They’re my first #1 seed to fall, in the Sweet 16 to a red hot Pitt club.

Speaking of Pitt, there’s two main points people bring up for not picking the Panthers to go deep in your bracket.  1-Conference Tournament fad teams usually don’t fair well in the tournament.  Yes, that’s true, but rarely do those teams return a star player to their line-up at this point, as Pitt has with LaVance Fields.  2- Pitt really has only played the best at Madison Square Garden, is this something to worry about?  No, in fact, it’s a plus.  Any team that shows it thrives on neutral courts is always a dangerous squad in the tournament, which,  after all, is played on neutral courts.

My national Championship pick is UCLA.  Why?  The Bruins have made the final four two years in a row, and this might be thier most talented roster.  On top of that, the Bruins have added the key component to any championship team:  A dominent big man in Kevin Love.  They’re led by one of the top 2 coaches in the country in Ben Howland (in case your wondering, my other is Bo Ryan), and have made a habit lately of taking games over down the stretch.  I’ve been high on the Bruins all season, and truely believe this is thier year.

Here’s a few key rules to stick by when filling out your bracket:

Rule 1.  Two inconsistant teams matched-up often equals upsets.  Teams who have been easy to predict throughout the season often do not change thier colors in dance.

Rule 2. The vast majority of final four teams have dominent big men.  The College Basketball season is long.  The tournament is grueling.  Teams that rely on shooting usualy struggle in the tournament, simply because they get tired.  Don’t get me wrong, big men get worn out too, but it doesn’t effect a post players game nearly the way it can a jumpshooters. 

Look at my final four, all of them have dominent big men: UCLA (Kevin Love), Stanford (The Lopez Twins), Georgetown (Roy Hibbert), UNC (Tyler Hansbrough).   Three of last year’s Final Four (Florida- Johkim Noah, Georgetown- Roy Hibbert, Ohio State- Greg Oden)  had dominent big men.   The year before, Florida (Noah), LSU (Glen “Big Baby” Davis), and George Mason (Jai Lewis) rode big men to Indianapolis.  The year before that, North Carolina had Shaun May.  In ’04, UConn had Emeka Okafor.  This is a trend that’s sure not to go away any time soon.

That being said, the fact that I used both logic and statistics to help aide my picks, they’re sure to go wrong.

Rule 3. If you plan on winning, get familiar with all 65 teams.  A good way to do this?  ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has a pretty cool preview of all 65 teams HERE.

I’ll be blogging live during Thursday and Friday’s daytime action, not sure yet on my availability during the night slots.   

You can reach Mike Fahmie at mikeonsports@yahoo.com