2009 National League Central Division Preview

March 29, 2009
By: Vince Coughlin

Last season the Cubs and Brewers battled down the stretch for the NL Central division crown. In the end, the Cubs won the division by 7 ½ games. In 2009, the NL Central looks to be more than a two team race, but the Cubbies are still the heavy favorites. The Cubs have won back-to-back division titles and now look to tie a franchise record by appearing in the postseason for the third consecutive season. The Cardinals and Astros are looking to end their two-year playoff draughts. The Brewers are hoping new manager Ken Macha can keep them in the NL Central race. The Reds and Pirates are looking to get over the .500 mark after being the only two teams to have more losses than wins in the division last season.

Chicago Cubs
2008 record: 97-64 (1st place)
NLDS: Lost to Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0

As ticket prices continue to rise at the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, so does the pressure on the Cubs. Lou Piniella has had nothing but success in his first two seasons with the Cubs, going 182-141 with two division titles. However, the team has been swept each season in the NLDS. The Cubs have one goal, and that is to reach the World Series for the first time since 1945.

The Cubs made some moves in the offseason by signing free agents Milton Bradley and Aaron Miles. Bradley is hitting over .400 in spring training and will add left-handed power to a lineup that is in desperate need of it. Miles will compete with Mike Fontenot to replace fan favorite Mark DeRosa at 2B, who was traded to the Cleveland Indians this offseason.

Last season the Cubs scored 184 more runs than their opponents, better than any other team in baseball. They also had the best home record in the National League, while finishing over .500 on the road. Alfonso Soriano will compete for the National League MVP, as long as he can stay healthy. Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee are expected to put together all-star worthy numbers once again, while Ryan Theriot looks to bat over .300 for the second consecutive season. Geovany Soto looks to avoid a sophomore slump and improve upon his numbers that won him the NL Rookie of the Year last season. Top to bottom, this is arguably one of the best lineups in all of baseball.

The Cubs starting pitching may be the best in baseball. They return four of five starting pitchers, including all-stars Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster. Veteran Ted Lilly looks to improve upon his 17-9 record last season, while Rich Harden hopes to be the league leader in strikeouts this season, assuming he can stay healthy. Sean Marshall rounds out the starting rotation for the Cubs.

Whether or not the Cubs win their third straight division title may all come down to their bullpen. Though the Cubs acquired Kevin Gregg and Luis Vizcaino, they lost Bob Howry and Kerry Wood, who were major contributors to the bullpen over the last few seasons. All-star Carlos Marmol and former Marlin Kevin Gregg will compete for the closer’s role. Marmol saved seven games in nine opportunities while striking out 114 batters last season. Whichever pitcher wins the job, they will have a tough time replicating the numbers that Kerry Wood produced last season.

Prediction: 95-67 (1st place)

Cincinnati Reds
2008 Record: 74-88 (5th place)

In his first season with the Cincinnati Reds, Dusty Baker went a disappointing 74-88. This record would likely have been better had they not traded Adam Dunn in August last season. Even though 74 wins is the worst Dusty has done with a team in his first season as manager, there is plenty of hope for the Reds in 2009, who hope to finish better than fifth in the division for the first time since 2006, when they finished third.

The Reds hope to improve on their division-worst 704 runs scored from last season. They acquired catcher Ramon Hernandez and outfielders Willy Taveras and Jonny Gomes in the offseason. Hernandez will add experience to a one of the youngest teams in baseball, while Taveras will serve as a threat on the base path. Taveras led all of baseball in stolen bases last year with 68.

Cincinnati has the hitters to produce numbers. Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jay Bruce each hit over 20 home runs last season. However, each of them also struck out over 100 times last season, except for Phillips who just missed the mark with 93. Votto produced the best batting average of the four, hitting .297 in 151 games. These four hitters will determine if the Reds become the scoring machine they are capable of.

The starting pitching of the Cincinnati Reds may be the best in the division, after the Cubs. Bronson Arroyo won 15 games while pitching over 200 innings last season, and star Edison Volquez posted 17 wins and 206 strikeouts in his first season with the Cincinnati Reds. The biggest disappointment with the Reds starting staff last season was Aaron Harang, who went 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA. Harang failed to pitch 200 innings for the first time since 2004 and gave up over 30 home runs in a season for the first time in his career. Johnny Cueto won nine games in his rookie season and looks to only get better in 2009. Micah Owings looks to be the fifth starter in the Reds rotation this season after being acquired during the 2008 season from Arizona.

To improve their bullpen, Cincinnati acquired veteran left-hander Arthur Rhodes from the Florida Marlins. This will be the seventh MLB team Rhodes has pitched for. He joins a bullpen that includes former closer Dave Weathers, Nick Masset, and closer Francisco Cordero. Cordero has saved 78 games over the past two seasons with the Brewers and Reds. If the Reds can put up runs and lead going into the ninth inning this season, expect Cordero to save over 40 games this season.

Prediction: 81-81 (4th place)

Houston Astros
2008 Record: 86-75 (3rd place)

Manager Cecil Cooper won 86 games in his first season with the Houston Astros. Cooper will try to improve upon that and get the Astros back to the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Houston acquired veterans Mike Hampton, Ivan Rodriguez, and Aaron Boone in the offseason, but lost long-time catcher Brad Ausmus and infielder Mark Loretta to the Dodgers. The starting pitching will determine if the Astros are a playoff team or an under-.500 ball club.

Houston was the most improved team from the NL Central in 2008, winning 13 more games than they did in 2007. Lance Berkman was the biggest contributor to last year’s team. Berkman batted .313 and over 100 RBIs for the third straight season. He also posted 114 runs and an over .400 on-base percentage. The rest of the offense is also producing for the Astros. Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee hit 25 and 28 home runs last season, respectively. If Miguel Tejada can put up numbers like he did when in Oakland, Houston will be a threat in the NL Central race. Expect Ivan Rodriguez’s home run numbers to increase this season while playing at Minute Maid Park, which is a hitter’s ballpark.

The Astros pitching staff is lead by Roy Oswalt, who will be in his ninth season with the team. Oswalt went 17-10 with a 3.54 ERA last season. Oswalt’s success will determine whether the Astros compete for a division title or finish below .500 this season. Left-handed starter Wandy Rodriguez hopes to continue on last season’s success, where he posted an ERA below 4.00 for the first time in his career. If the Astros can provide Rodriguez with run support, he and Oswalt can each win 15 games this season. Mike Hampton hopes to regain the success he had in 1999 as an Astro before leaving for the New York Mets in 2000. Hampton won 67 games in four years as a starting pitcher for the Astros in the late 1990s. Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz, and Brandon Backe also look to contribute as starters for the Astros this season.

If your team can’t score against the Astros in the first eight innings, don’t bother showing up for the ninth. Jose Valverde returns this season as the Astros closer. Valverde saved a National League leading 44 games last season in 51 tries and averaged more than one strikeout per inning. The Astros bullpen also consists of set-up man LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary, Doug Brocail, and Tim Byrdak. If Valverde gets injured and Hawkins takes his closer spot, expect Hawkins to blow numerous save opportunities, as he has proven throughout his career. Overall, this is one of the better bullpens in the division.

Prediction: 87-75 (3rd place)

Milwaukee Brewers
2008 Record: 90-72 (2nd place)
NLDS: Lost to Philadelphia Phillies 3-1

The Brewers are the only team in the division to hire a new manager. Ken Macha takes the place of former manager Ned Yost, who was fired in mid-September of last season after the Brewers failed to win the division. Macha was the Oakland Athletics manager from 2003-2006 and never finished worse than second in the four-team division. Macha looks to continue his success in Milwaukee with a team that returns all of their starters in the field, but lose their top two starters.

The Brewers will have to find a way to win this season without the help of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Sabathia was acquired before the trade deadline last season and was the key factor in Milwaukee winning the NL Wild Card. Sabathia won 11 of 17 games he started for the Brewers, including 3 shutouts. Sheets pitched eight seasons for the Brewers, posting double-digit win totals in seven of those. The Brewers acquired Braden Looper from the Cardinals to fill one of the two vacant starting spots. Milwaukee also acquired closer Trevor Hoffman to help their bullpen, which struggled on many occasions last season.

The Brewers return all of their hitters, including Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, who hit 37 and 34 home runs last season, respectively. Both are contenders for the NL MVP, but will need more help from teammates around them if they expect to win. Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Mike Cameron each hit over 20 home runs last season, but each of them will have to increase their batting average this season. Catcher Jason Kendall is being mentioned as a potential leadoff hitter for the team. Kendall had multiple seasons where he hit over .300 during his days with the Pirates, but has yet to reach that mark since leaving the team in 2007. The Brewers hitters will need to exceed expectations this season if they have shot at competing for a division title.
The Brewers only return two pitchers from last season who posted double-digit wins, Jeff Suppan and Manny Parra, each with 10. However, each posted an ERA over 4.00. Suppan gave up 30 home runs and Parra walked a team-leading 75 hitters. Yovani Gallardo returns in 2009 after only starting four games in 2008 due to knee surgery. Dave Bush will also return as a starter for the Brewers, after improving his ERA by 0.94 in 2008. Someone will need to step up as the Brewers ace if this team expects to do anything this season.

One of the few improved spots on the Brewer’s roster is their bullpen, which can’t get much worse after last season. Milwaukee adds veteran Trevor Hoffman, who has 554 career saves. Despite being 41 years old, Hoffman is still one of the best closers in the game. Carlos Villanueva, who started nine games for the Brewers last season, will see plenty of long relief appearances if the starters can’t get it done this season. David Riske provides some more veteran experience to the bullpen, entering his 11th season in the majors. Expect the bullpen to see more appearances this season with the departures of Sabathia and Sheets.

Prediction: 78-84 (5th place)

Pittsburgh Pirates
2008 Record: 67-95 (6th place)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to finish better than the bottom two spots of the division for the first time since 2003, when they took fourth place. Manager John Russell was not able to achieve this in 2008, finishing dead last in the six team division. The Pirates have some good, young hitters on their team but they will continue to struggle until they decide to acquire some free-agent talent. The Pirates traded Jason Bay away at the trade deadline in 2008 and currently have no one capable of putting up the numbers he did.

The Pirates did make a couple of moves this offseason, acquiring Craig Monroe from the Twins. Monroe has not had a respectable batting average since his 2006 season with the Detroit Tigers. Monroe may not be an everyday starter, but he can be a valuable pinch-hitter in late-game situations for Pittsburgh. The Pirates also acquired Ramon Vasquez, who was a .290 hitter with the Texas Rangers last season. He will compete for playing time in the infield.

Though the Pirates don’t seem that impressive on paper, they do have some power in their lineup. Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche each hit 26 and 25 home runs last season, respectively. McLouth also stole a team-leading 23 bases in 2008. Catcher Ryan Doumit hit an impressive .318 last season. If the Pirates want to finish any better than last in the NL Central, others hitters will need to have breakout seasons.

Not a single pitcher on the Pirates managed to reach double-digit wins last season. Expected opening day starter Paul Maholm had the best season in 2008 among Pittsburgh starters, going 9-9 with a 3.71 ERA and striking out a team-leading 139 hitters. Zach Duke and Ian Snell each started 31 games, as did Maholm, for the Pirates but had double-digit losses due to a lack of run support. Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens are also expected to start in the Pirates rotation. Left-hander Tom Gorzelanny was just recently optioned down to the minors, but will likely rejoin the team at some point in the season as a starter.

Matt Capps returns as the Pirates closer this season. Capps saved 21 of 25 games in 2008. John Grabow and Tyler Yates each won six games out of the bullpen last season, but both blew numerous save when given the opportunity. These three make up the core of the Pirates bullpen this season. If Capps goes down due to injury, the Pirates are in deep trouble.

Prediction: 71-91 (6th place)

St. Louis Cardinals
2008 Record: 86-76 (4th place)

After missing the playoffs for the second straight season, the Cardinals are determined to get back and compete for a World Series championship. The Cardinals return three of their four pitchers who won more than 10 games last season, all of their starting outfielders, and most of their starting infield. With strong pitching and consistent hitting this season, the Cardinals will battle the Cubs for the NL Central title.

The Cardinals lost infielders Cesar Izturis and Aaron Miles to free agency, but made up for it by acquiring shortstop Khalil Greene in a trade with the Padres. Greene has not had the career he has hoped for in the majors so far, but joining a team like the Cardinals just might fix that. The Cardinals also added to their bullpen, acquiring free-agents Trever Miller from Tampa Bay and Royce Ring from Atlanta.

The strength of the Cardinals is clearly their offense. 2008 NL MVP Albert Pujols looks to continue his success at the plate from last season. Pujols hit .357 with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs last season. The Cardinals powerful lineup also includes Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and former pitcher turned outfielder Rick Ankiel. St. Louis also has three starters returning from last season who hit over .300, Skip Schumaker (.302), Yadier Molina (.304), and Albert Pujols (.357). This strong lineup can carry the Cardinals into the postseason.

The Cardinals starting rotation is good, but not great. Chris Carpenter returns to the mound after missing almost all of the 2008 season from Tommy John surgery. Carpenter won 51 games during the 2004-2006 seasons and is capable of that this season if he stays healthy. The rest of the staff includes four starts from 2008: Kyle Lohse (15-6), Todd Wellemeyer (13-9), Adam Wainwright (11-3), and Joel Pineiro (7-7). Wellemeyer lead the team in strikeouts with 134 in 2008, while Wainwright had the best ERA among the four starters (3.20).

The one uncertainty for the Cardinals is who will fill the closer role. Right now, it seems the leading candidate is Chris Perez, who saved 7 games in 11 chances last season. Perez compiled a 3-3 record with a 3.46 ERA in 41 games during the 2008 campaign. Ryan Franklin seems to be next in line for the role since he has the most experience as closer of anyone else on the roster, but only recorded 17 saves in 25 opportunities last season. If the Cardinals expect to compete with the Cubs, they will need to find a closer they can rely on come the ninth inning. If Perez, Franklin, or another pitcher can fulfill the closer role in St. Louis, they may very well dethrone the Cubs as NL Central division champions.

Prediction: 89-73 (2nd place)