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Bracketology 2009 Presented by BetUs.com!

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Thursday March 12, 2009

 

Not much movement yesterday.  Texas A&M fell to a 10 seed after blowing their monster lead to Texas Tech and allowing the Red Raiders to advance to day 2 in OKC.  The Aggies are still pretty safe heading into Sunday.

 

Today will be another story.  Huge games nationwide will surely shake things up.  Let’s take a quick rundown:

 

Va Tech/Miami: The winner gets to play UNC tomorrow, where a win would put them in.

Arizona/Arizona State:  The Wildcats look to play their way into the field

Minnesota/Northwestern: The Gophers need it to make the cut.

Michigan/Iowa: Ditto for the Wolverines.

Providence/Louisville: The Friars must at least keep things interesting…

Marquette/Villanova:  The Wildcats play for a chance at a 3 seed.

San Diego State/UNLV:  Loser misses the cut.

Florida/Arkansas:  Here’s hoping the Gators aren’t looking forward to tomorrow’s possible match-up with Auburn.

 

The committee regularly practices swapping teams one seed to either a) keep teams closer to home or b) avoid rematches.  Because of this the following teams were swapped:

          Gonzaga and LSU swapped 5/6 seeds to keep the Zags on the West Coast

          UCLA/Xavier swapped 5/6 seeds for the same reason.

          Texas A&M/Siena swapped 9/10 seeds to keep both teams closer to home.

          Boston College/Dayton swapped 9/10 seeds to avoid a conference rematch.

 

So with that in mind, here’s a look at the field of 65 as it stands today (click to enlarge, you may have to click twice to get at full size)

bracket-312 

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LAST 4 IN

South Carolina: The stat of 0 Top 50 wins is a killer, and could leave them Gamecocks out if they fail to impress in Tampa. 

Providence: The Friars need a win over Louisville to keep the dream alive.

ArizonaBig one with Rival ASU this afternoon.

MinnesotaThe Gophers dropped a tough one at home to Michigan and now face a tough Northwestern team in the B10s 8/9 game on Thursday.

 

FIRST 4 OUT

UNLV:  The Rebels play San Diego State for the second time in five days today, and must win to get back into the field.  

Creighton:  Their chances look slimmer every day.

St. Mary’s:  The Gaels didn’t get the impressive showing they needed against Gonzaga., and Patty Mills failed to impress in his second game back.  They aren’t dumb up there in NoCal, as the Gaels scheduled Eastern Washington later this week for one last chance to state their case.

Florida/Auburn:  Yeah, I’m cheating, but so long as Florida doesn’t lay an egg against Arkansas on tonight, these two will face off in the SEC nightcap on Friday.  Can anyone say play-in game?

 

The bReAkDoWn

BIG EAST (8)

Locked-In – UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse

Nearly Locked – West Virginia

Solidly In –

Bubble, but IN – Providence

Bubble, but OUT –

Big Ten (8)

Locked-In – Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois

Nearly Locked – Wisconsin

Solidly In –

Bubble, but IN – Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan

Bubble, but OUT –

Big 12 (6)

Locked-In – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri

Nearly Locked –

Solidly In – Texas A&M, Oklahoma State

Bubble, but IN – Texas,

Bubble, but OUT – Kansas State

ACC (6)

Locked-In – North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State

Nearly Locked –

Solidly In –

Bubble, but IN – Boston College

Bubble, but OUT – Virginia Tech, Miami (Fl)

PAC 10 (5)

Locked-In – Washington, UCLA, Cal

Nearly Locked – Arizona State

Solidly In –

Bubble, but IN – Arizona

Bubble, but OUT – USC

Mountain West (3)

Locked-In – Utah

Nearly Locked – BYU

Solidly In –

Bubble, but IN – San Diego State

Bubble, but OUT – UNLV, New Mexico

SEC (3)

Locked-In– LSU

Nearly Locked – Tennessee

Solidly In –

Bubble, but IN – South Carolina

Bubble, but OUT – Florida, Auburn, Kentucky

Atlantic 10 (2)

Locked-In – Xavier

Nearly Locked –

Solidly In – Dayton

Bubble, but IN –

Bubble, but OUT –Rhode Island, Temple

West Coast (1)

Locked-In – Gonzaga

Nearly Locked –

Solidly In –

Bubble, but IN –

Bubble, but OUT – Saint Mary’s

The 1 Bidders:

(Teams are put where they would be without the protection of an automatic bid)

 

Bubble Busters (locked in but upset in Conference Tourney): Butler

 

Clinched Automatic Bids: Cornell (Ivy), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Morehead State (OVC), Radford (Big South), Northern Iowa (MVC), Siena (MAAC), Chattanooga (SoCon), Cleveland State (Horizon), Portland State (Big Sky) VCU (CAA), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), North Dakota State (Summit), Robert Morris (Northeast)

 

Not Automatic yet, but still Locked-In – Memphis (C-USA)

Nearly Locked –

Solidly In –

Bubble, but IN –

Bubble, but OUT – Utah State (WAC)

Must Win Their Tournaments: Binghamton (America East), Bowling Green (MAC), Cal State Northridge (Big West), American (Patriot), Morgan State (MEAC), Stephen F Austin (Southland), Alabama State (SWAC)

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  1. Goro
    March 12, 2009 at 5:20 pm

    Here’s why Creighton SHOULD be in…

    Over the last ten years, 133 teams have finished with a Top-50 RPI and 25 or more D-1 wins.

    All 133 of those teams made the NCAA tournament. ALL of them.

    Creighton has 26 wins and currently sits comfortably inside the RPI top 50 (they’re at #39). If the selection committee’s recent history proves anything, it’s that Creighton should be dancing, no questions asked.

    If you look at the 17 teams this year that currently fit the 25+ wins and Top-50 profile, 15 of those teams are already considered to be locks for the Dance, with only Utah State and Creighton on the proverbial bubble.

    That means at LEAST 148 of the 150 teams in the 25+ win and Top-50 RPI profiles over the last 11 years will have made the field, save Utah State (who’s still got their WAC tourney coming up) and Creighton.

    Also, every MVC regular conference champ this decade who didn’t win their auto-bid has gotten an at-large. A perfect 9 for 9.

    And every MVC team who won at least 14 games in conference play this decade got an at-large if they didn’t win the auto-bid. A perfect 9 for 9 again.

    Oh, what else… in the last six years, 50 teams in the RPI top 50 closed out their seasons with a 9-1 mark or better… and ALL 50 made the NCAAs.

    Creighton closed out their season with an 11-1 run.

    At this point, Creighton’s also got more top-100 wins this year (10) than a projected two-thirds of the NCAA field.

    They’ve got 26 wins, they’re co-champs of the #9 conference in the nation, they’ve won 10 top-100 games, They’re in the RPI top 40, and they went 11-1 down the stretch. What more can you ask for?

    Don’t you think the MVC’s been trying to schedule games against the BCS? Don’t continue to penalize the MVC because of the lack of quality wins, when the big boys don’t ever want to schedule against them.

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