Bracketology 2009 Presented by

Mike’s picks have been posted.  Check them out HERE.
Final Bracket
(Click to enlarge, you may have to click twice to get a full size)
Last 4 In: Dayton, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn State
First 4 Out: St. Mary’s, Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton
Selection Sunday Live Blog
12:10 – The 1 Seeds
Three of the four one seeds are locked.  Louisville, Pitt and UNC will be top seeds.  Louisville will play in Boston, Pitt in Indy, and UNC in Memphis.  The final #1 seed could go a number of ways.  I believe Duke, with an RPI and SOS both ranked #2 overall, has a shot at a one seed if they beat Florida State in the ACC title game today.  If they lose, I think the Selection Committee will end up giving the Big East a third number one seed,  as the UConn Huskies will take the final slot on the top line.  I don’t think Memphis will be a one seed.
12:23 – Who’s Safe
31of the 34 At-Large teams seem safe enterting Friday.  If you’re a fan of any of the following teams, you can rest easy: North Carolina, Pitt, UConn, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Syracuse, Washington, Villanova, Florida State, Kansas, Wake Forest, Purdue, Illinois, UCLA, LSU, West Virginia, Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson, Marquette, Butler, Tennessee, Texas, Cal, BYU, Dayton, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Boston College, Texas A&M, Michigan and Maryland.  Several of those teams can take automatic bids today, but will easily make the field as an at-large should they lose.
12:30 Who’s Bubbly
So, that leaves us with 3 remaining spots, 2 if Missippippi State gets frisky and steals a bid away by winning the SEC Championship today.  In no particular order, Maryland, Penn State, San Diego State, Arizona, Auburn, Creighton, and St. Mary’s are in contention for the final three spots.  Breaking this group of teams down will be the main focus this afternoon.  Each has a strong case for a spot, and just as strong of a case against it.
12:50 2 Seeds
The more I think about it, the more I see Duke as a two seed, and UConn as a one.  I’ll likely debate this to myself several times throughout the afternoon.  The other spots are locked in, and will go to Memphis, Oklahoma, and Michigan State. 
1:00 True Seeds
I’ll release everyone’s true seed once the Big Ten Championship looks to be decided.  This is where every team would be seeded if nobody were swapped a line due to bracketing principles.  Shortly after, you’ll see the bracket appear at the top of the page.  We’re only 4:45 minutes away from that point…
1:10 3 Seeds
Washington, Syracuse and Missouri will be three seeds.  The fourth spot is Florida State’s if they win the ACC Championship today, Villanova’s if they don’t. 
1:20 Play-In Game
With an RPI around 200, Alabama State will surely be in the play-in game in Dayton.  They’ll be joined by Chattanooga, unless Texas-San Antonio can win the Southland Championship today.
1:40 SEC
The SEC has a good chance at only getting two bids unless Mississippi State wins today.  The Bulldogs are currenlty up two.  A win would likely pop two bubbles, as Auburn’s best argument is that the conference should get 3 bids
2:05 4 Seeds
Florida State is getting run by Duke, which will lock them into a four seed.  They’ll be joined there by Kansas and Wake Forest.  Purdue will be there if they lose the B10 title today.  If they win, Villanova will drop to the 4 line. 
2:15 Bubble Busting
Let’s take a second and review some of the bubble teams:
Maryland has wins over Michigan State, Wake Forest and North Carolina.  That’s a 1, 2, and 4 seed.  The Terps are in my field.
Arizona has strong wins, but losing 5 of their last 6, along with only two road wins will keep the Wildcats outside the field, and end the nation’s longest tournament streak.
2:22 #1 Overall
While Louisville’s sweep of the Big East gives them a heck of a case, North Carolina will be the top overall seed when the field is released. 
2:42 Comments on Comments
UD Connor-
Dayton defiently has fallen the last couple days, but I don’t think they’re in major danger of falling out.  The Duquense loss dopped them to a double-digit seed.
While I beleive the Blue Devils are deserving of a #1 seed, I don’t see it happening.  I think Memphis out-of-conference profile keeps them on the #2 lne.  I’m starting to believe the committee will give the Big East three top seeds, going to Louisville, Pitt, and UConn, in that order.
Keep the comments coming on the bottom, I’ll try to get to as many as I can.  Meanwhile Mississippi State is making bubble boys sweat, more on that in a little bit…
2:50 MSU and More Comments on Comments
Mississippi State looks primed to steal a bubble bid, so let’s review where the last 4 in.
As I’ve said, Maryland and Minnesota are in my last four in, but I think they’re safe.  The final two are defiently up for debate.  I currently have Penn Sate as my 2nd to last team in.  Their B10 showing was huge to say the least.  My current last team in is St. Mary’s.  The Gaels have a couple things going for them.  First off, a win over San Diego State on a neurtal floor gives them a clear advantage over the Aztechs.  Secondly, their “bad stretch” was without starr player Pattie Mills, who has shown signs of being ready to go full speed by next week.  It’s a close call among the other bubbles, but right now, they’re my last team in, and will be bumped should Mississippi State win.
As far as UNC as the top overall, here’s the tought:  Louisville had a poor out of confrence, and hwile they’ll be one, they won’t be top overall.  Pitt and UConn were both strong, but I think UNC has shown more signs.  Also, remember that this committee, which is 8/10th the same as last year, gave UNC the top overall bid when they didn’t deserve it a seasoon ago.  I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but I’m fairly confident.
3:05 The 5’s and the Play-In Game
After sweeping the WCC, Gonzaga will be a 5 seed naturally.  I say naturally because I expect the Zags to be moved to a 6 seed to allow them to play in Portland along with third seeded Washington.  Illinois will be a 5 after showing themselves as the third team in the Big Ten.  Arizona State takes a five seed after making it to the Pac 10 final.  Lastly, LSU will take a five seed after taking the regular season SEC title. 
Speaking of the SEC, I’m taking a short break to watch the Bulldogs, who are about to punch a ticket.  Ticket punched for Stephen F Austin out of the Southland btw, whcih sets the play-in game as Chattanooga v Alabama State.
Get the latest March Madness Lines at BetUS.Com!
3:13 After Further Review
After further review, I’ll be putting Villanova as a three seed, and Purdue as a four.  I don’t think the committee will wait out the B10 title game’s result, as they rarely do.  Last year it cost Wisconsin a 2 seed, this year it’ll cost the Boilers a 3.
3:30 Gaels Gone
Mississippi State has won the SEC, and with that I’ll drop St. Mary’s from the field of 65.  Penn State is now my last team in.
3:35 Going into hiding…
Time to start locking down on the field, so you won’t hear much more from me.  I’ll realease everyone’s true seeds at 5, then the final bracket at 5:45. 
4:35 Up For Air
The field has been bracketed, and the final bracket is currently being sent through the proof reading process.  I’ll have everyone’s true seeds up in a moment, and the bracket following the conclusion of the Big Ten title game.
Again, these are my last 4 IN: Dayon, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn State
My First Four Out: St. Mary’s, Arizona, Creighton, San Diego State. 
I don’t feel incredibly confident in choosing Penn State over St. Mary’s, but that’s the way the dice fell. 
4:40 Chew on that…
Reviewing the last four in, as CBS was just so kind to point out…remember those four teams would all be IN the field had USC, Mississippi State, Temple, and Cleveland State not stolen bids this week.
4:50 True Seeds
The following is a list of where all 65 teams would be seeded if swaps were not necessary.  Since they are, several teams will not be seeded exactly as they are listed below.  With that in mind, here you are: 
1: North Carolina, Pitt, Louisville, Uconn
2: Duke, Memphis, Michigan State, Oklahoma
3: Missouri, Syracuse, Washington, Villanova
4: Florida State, Kansas, Wake Forest, Purdue
5: Illinois, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Xavier
6: West Virginia, LSU, UCLA, Ohio State
7: Clemson, Utah Butler, Tennessee
8: Marquette, Texas, Californina, BYU
9: Texas A&M,  Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Boston College
10: Dayton, Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland
11: Utah State, Siena, Penn State, USC
12: Mississippii State, Temple, Cleveland State, Western Kentucky
13: Norhtern Iowa, VCU, American, Akron
14: Stephen  F Austin, North Dakota State, Portland State, East Tennessee State
15: Cornell, Robert Morris, Radford, Binghamton
16: Morehead State, Cal State Northrdige, Morgan State, Chatanooga vs Alabama State (play-in game)betuslogo
  1. eddie
    March 15, 2009 at 5:42 pm

    uconn at #1 is no gonna get very far…..they’re done quick

  2. jgunnip
    March 15, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    I knew Mike Fahmie before he was a world-famous bracketologist.

  3. Grant
    March 15, 2009 at 1:37 pm

    I also agree with UD Conor — not sure what NC should feel “safe” as the #1

  4. Grant
    March 15, 2009 at 1:33 pm

    **2:22 #1 Overall
    While Louisville’s sweep of the Big East gives them a heck of a case, North Carolina will be the top overall seed when the field is released.**

    So….given that you think Duke can play into a #1 after the ACC tourney game, does that mean that we have 2 Big East, 2 ACC #1’s?? Or will Memphis squeeze in and we have Pitt and UConn as #2’s??

    Don’t get me wrong, MSU played out of a #1 losing to Ohio State and Memphis’ conference blows, but I’m not sure a 30 win team, even from Conf-USA wouldn’t be a #1

  5. UD Conor
    March 15, 2009 at 1:29 pm

    I am also surprised that you are so comfortable with UNC as a #1 seed. If Duke wins against FSU which is up in the air at this point in the game, then UNC should be a #2 and the #1s should be Duke, Memphis, Pitt, and Louisville

  6. UD Conor
    March 15, 2009 at 1:24 pm

    I was surprised at how comfortable you were with Dayton. I have heard a lot of arguments to keep them out of the tournament as they lost in the semifinals against Duquesne and Xavier lost in the semis as well. Are you saying that there will be three A10 teams in the bracket? I’m not complaining because I think that Dayton could upset a team or two, I’m just surprised that the A10 is getting that kind of respect.

  7. Duke fan Steve
    March 15, 2009 at 12:54 pm

    I think the 4th team #1 should be Memphis. They have had a remarkable run and believe to be contenders in the final four if not win it. Pitt,Louisville,NC also.

  8. PSU Mike
    March 14, 2009 at 3:33 pm

    How does PSU have a 65 RPI? SOS? Look at the teams above them with much worse SOS, top 50 wins, worse conferences, no signifigant road wins, what is it? Siena? Please!! We would beat Siena by 20 at their place, and will probably get the chance in the NIT.

  9. Vince Coughlin
    March 9, 2009 at 10:18 pm

    As long as PSU doesn’t lose to IU on Thursday they’ll make the field with a pretty decent seed, likely a 9, maybe 10.

    Only thing holding PSU from a lock is their SOS, mainly because of the weak non-conference schedule.

  10. PSU fan
    March 6, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    How can Penn state move to a ten and still be on the bubble with wins at michigan state Illinois twice and purdue I would think they had a good enough resume at this point to be solidly in

  11. brian
    March 5, 2009 at 9:17 pm

    How can siena be bubble out when they have such a great rpi and will end up with at least 29 wins
    If not rewarded selection is bias
    Compare siena vs davidson-siena is hands down winner
    Stronger schedule
    Better conf
    Better wins-except the blank in top 50
    Their 3 old spice losses were early season when they worked out bugs and had injuries
    They should get in and be a 10 seed

  12. February 16, 2009 at 6:05 pm

    Please put me on email list

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