Bracketology 2009 Presented by BetUS.com

Mike’s picks have been posted.  Check them out HERE.

Final Bracket

(Click to enlarge, you may have to click twice to get a full size)

Last 4 In: Dayton, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn State

First 4 Out: St. Mary’s, Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton

Selection Sunday Live Blog

12:10 – The 1 Seeds

Three of the four one seeds are locked.  Louisville, Pitt and UNC will be top seeds.  Louisville will play in Boston, Pitt in Indy, and UNC in Memphis.  The final #1 seed could go a number of ways.  I believe Duke, with an RPI and SOS both ranked #2 overall, has a shot at a one seed if they beat Florida State in the ACC title game today.  If they lose, I think the Selection Committee will end up giving the Big East a third number one seed,  as the UConn Huskies will take the final slot on the top line.  I don’t think Memphis will be a one seed.

12:23 – Who’s Safe

31of the 34 At-Large teams seem safe enterting Friday.  If you’re a fan of any of the following teams, you can rest easy: North Carolina, Pitt, UConn, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Syracuse, Washington, Villanova, Florida State, Kansas, Wake Forest, Purdue, Illinois, UCLA, LSU, West Virginia, Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson, Marquette, Butler, Tennessee, Texas, Cal, BYU, Dayton, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Boston College, Texas A&M, Michigan and Maryland.  Several of those teams can take automatic bids today, but will easily make the field as an at-large should they lose.

12:30 Who’s Bubbly

So, that leaves us with 3 remaining spots, 2 if Missippippi State gets frisky and steals a bid away by winning the SEC Championship today.  In no particular order, Maryland, Penn State, San Diego State, Arizona, Auburn, Creighton, and St. Mary’s are in contention for the final three spots.  Breaking this group of teams down will be the main focus this afternoon.  Each has a strong case for a spot, and just as strong of a case against it.

12:50 2 Seeds

The more I think about it, the more I see Duke as a two seed, and UConn as a one.  I’ll likely debate this to myself several times throughout the afternoon.  The other spots are locked in, and will go to Memphis, Oklahoma, and Michigan State. 

1:00 True Seeds

I’ll release everyone’s true seed once the Big Ten Championship looks to be decided.  This is where every team would be seeded if nobody were swapped a line due to bracketing principles.  Shortly after, you’ll see the bracket appear at the top of the page.  We’re only 4:45 minutes away from that point…

1:10 3 Seeds

Washington, Syracuse and Missouri will be three seeds.  The fourth spot is Florida State’s if they win the ACC Championship today, Villanova’s if they don’t. 

1:20 Play-In Game

With an RPI around 200, Alabama State will surely be in the play-in game in Dayton.  They’ll be joined by Chattanooga, unless Texas-San Antonio can win the Southland Championship today.

1:40 SEC

The SEC has a good chance at only getting two bids unless Mississippi State wins today.  The Bulldogs are currenlty up two.  A win would likely pop two bubbles, as Auburn’s best argument is that the conference should get 3 bids

2:05 4 Seeds

Florida State is getting run by Duke, which will lock them into a four seed.  They’ll be joined there by Kansas and Wake Forest.  Purdue will be there if they lose the B10 title today.  If they win, Villanova will drop to the 4 line. 

2:15 Bubble Busting

Let’s take a second and review some of the bubble teams:

Maryland has wins over Michigan State, Wake Forest and North Carolina.  That’s a 1, 2, and 4 seed.  The Terps are in my field.

Arizona has strong wins, but losing 5 of their last 6, along with only two road wins will keep the Wildcats outside the field, and end the nation’s longest tournament streak.

2:22 #1 Overall

While Louisville’s sweep of the Big East gives them a heck of a case, North Carolina will be the top overall seed when the field is released. 

2:42 Comments on Comments

UD Connor-
Dayton defiently has fallen the last couple days, but I don’t think they’re in major danger of falling out.  The Duquense loss dopped them to a double-digit seed.
Grant-
While I beleive the Blue Devils are deserving of a #1 seed, I don’t see it happening.  I think Memphis out-of-conference profile keeps them on the #2 lne.  I’m starting to believe the committee will give the Big East three top seeds, going to Louisville, Pitt, and UConn, in that order.

Keep the comments coming on the bottom, I’ll try to get to as many as I can.  Meanwhile Mississippi State is making bubble boys sweat, more on that in a little bit…

2:50 MSU and More Comments on Comments

Mississippi State looks primed to steal a bubble bid, so let’s review where the last 4 in.

As I’ve said, Maryland and Minnesota are in my last four in, but I think they’re safe.  The final two are defiently up for debate.  I currently have Penn Sate as my 2nd to last team in.  Their B10 showing was huge to say the least.  My current last team in is St. Mary’s.  The Gaels have a couple things going for them.  First off, a win over San Diego State on a neurtal floor gives them a clear advantage over the Aztechs.  Secondly, their “bad stretch” was without starr player Pattie Mills, who has shown signs of being ready to go full speed by next week.  It’s a close call among the other bubbles, but right now, they’re my last team in, and will be bumped should Mississippi State win.

As far as UNC as the top overall, here’s the tought:  Louisville had a poor out of confrence, and hwile they’ll be one, they won’t be top overall.  Pitt and UConn were both strong, but I think UNC has shown more signs.  Also, remember that this committee, which is 8/10th the same as last year, gave UNC the top overall bid when they didn’t deserve it a seasoon ago.  I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but I’m fairly confident.

3:05 The 5’s and the Play-In Game

After sweeping the WCC, Gonzaga will be a 5 seed naturally.  I say naturally because I expect the Zags to be moved to a 6 seed to allow them to play in Portland along with third seeded Washington.  Illinois will be a 5 after showing themselves as the third team in the Big Ten.  Arizona State takes a five seed after making it to the Pac 10 final.  Lastly, LSU will take a five seed after taking the regular season SEC title. 

Speaking of the SEC, I’m taking a short break to watch the Bulldogs, who are about to punch a ticket.  Ticket punched for Stephen F Austin out of the Southland btw, whcih sets the play-in game as Chattanooga v Alabama State.

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3:13 After Further Review

After further review, I’ll be putting Villanova as a three seed, and Purdue as a four.  I don’t think the committee will wait out the B10 title game’s result, as they rarely do.  Last year it cost Wisconsin a 2 seed, this year it’ll cost the Boilers a 3.

3:30 Gaels Gone

Mississippi State has won the SEC, and with that I’ll drop St. Mary’s from the field of 65.  Penn State is now my last team in.

3:35 Going into hiding…

Time to start locking down on the field, so you won’t hear much more from me.  I’ll realease everyone’s true seeds at 5, then the final bracket at 5:45. 

4:35 Up For Air

The field has been bracketed, and the final bracket is currently being sent through the proof reading process.  I’ll have everyone’s true seeds up in a moment, and the bracket following the conclusion of the Big Ten title game.

Again, these are my last 4 IN: Dayon, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn State

My First Four Out: St. Mary’s, Arizona, Creighton, San Diego State. 

I don’t feel incredibly confident in choosing Penn State over St. Mary’s, but that’s the way the dice fell. 

4:40 Chew on that…

Reviewing the last four in, as CBS was just so kind to point out…remember those four teams would all be IN the field had USC, Mississippi State, Temple, and Cleveland State not stolen bids this week.

4:50 True Seeds

The following is a list of where all 65 teams would be seeded if swaps were not necessary.  Since they are, several teams will not be seeded exactly as they are listed below.  With that in mind, here you are: 

1: North Carolina, Pitt, Louisville, Uconn

2: Duke, Memphis, Michigan State, Oklahoma

3: Missouri, Syracuse, Washington, Villanova

4: Florida State, Kansas, Wake Forest, Purdue

5: Illinois, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Xavier

6: West Virginia, LSU, UCLA, Ohio State

7: Clemson, Utah Butler, Tennessee

8: Marquette, Texas, Californina, BYU

9: Texas A&M,  Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Boston College

10: Dayton, Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland

11: Utah State, Siena, Penn State, USC

12: Mississippii State, Temple, Cleveland State, Western Kentucky

13: Norhtern Iowa, VCU, American, Akron

14: Stephen  F Austin, North Dakota State, Portland State, East Tennessee State

15: Cornell, Robert Morris, Radford, Binghamton

16: Morehead State, Cal State Northrdige, Morgan State, Chatanooga vs Alabama State (play-in game)